Long-Term Care Demand Will Skyrocket

The United States will need at least 2.5 million new workers to provide long-term care services by 2030.

That’s the assessment of researchers at the University of California at San Francisco, which published its conclusion in the most recent issue of the journal Health Affairs.

The researchers cited the continued aging of the U.S. population. By taking the current demographics and projecting it into the future, it concluded that 19 million Americans will need long-term care services by 2030. That’s up from 8 million today.

“Even if 20% of elderly patients move out of nursing homes into home healthcare, which would be huge change, the projected increase in demand for long-term care workers would only drop from 79% to 74%,” said Joanne Spetz, associate director for research strategy at the UCSF Center for the Health Professions. “Filling these jobs will be a big challenge under any scenario.”

Among the positions that will particularly be in demand are not only blue collar jobs such as home healthcare workers, but also white collar positions such as social workers and community workers.

The study suggested that states invest more in education and training for these positions, concluding that most do not have extensive investments in increasing the current workforce.